PMP Exam Prep Question of the Week

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You are evaluating two projects. Project A has an expected duration of 90 days with a standard deviation of 10 days, and Project B has an expected duration of 100 days with a standard deviation of 4 days. Which statement is not true regarding these two projects?

  1. Project B is riskier than Project A because its expected duration is longer.
  2. Project A is riskier than Project B because its standard deviation is larger.
  3. The maximum possible duration of Project A estimated at a 95 percent probability is longer than Project B.
  4. Both projects have the potential to be completed within 90 days.

The correct answer is 1.

Answer A is not true; a longer duration does not necessarily indicate higher risk. Answer B is true, because a larger standard deviation indicates a riskier estimate. Answer C is also true because the maximum estimate for Project A at 95 percent probability is 110 days, whereas the maximum estimate for Project B is 108 days. Lastly, Answer D is true because the minimum estimate at 3 standard deviations for Project A is 60 days and for Project B is 88 days, so both could potentially finish within 90 days.

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